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Hour of 
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GERMANY'S 
HOUR OF DESTINY 

BY 

COLONEL H. FROBENIUS 



WITH PREFACE BY 

WILLIAM R. SHEPHERD 

PROFESSOR OF HISTORY IN COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 




NEW YORK 
THE INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY inc. 
II 23 Broadway 
1914 



4 INTRODUCTION 

on the map of the world. Diplomatically they have reached 
a deadlock. Choosing, then, to ignore the fact that Germany 
has spent far less on armaments than they have, and accusing 
her of a "mihtarism," which, however, has kept the peace for 
more than forty years, her three great antagonists have been 
preparing to break the peace and to use the armaments : Rus- 
sia — to throw down the walls of Berlin and Vienna, which 
bar the way to Constantinople and the North Atlantic ; Eng- 
land — to dismantle the fleet that guards a growing merchant 
marine, and France — to regain the territories lost in an ear- 
lier war. 

From a national standpoint, as nations are constituted to- 
day, the desires of Russia, England and France are perfectly 
legitimate; but so also are the interests of Germany and Aus- 
tria-Hungary. It is only fair^ therefore, that the American 
who loves his country and hates hypocrisy should "hear the 
other side," especially when It is presented In so candid and 
straightforward a fashion. 



GERMANrs HOUR OF DESTINY 

By Colonel H. Frobenius, Retired 

It cannot be said that the federation of the German 
States and the renaissance of the German Empire in 1870-71 
aroused great satisfaction in any European country. It 
seemed to the Great Powers that the pohtical balance in 
Europe had been disturbed by the fact that, in the central 
region, which hitherto had supplied them with a welcome 
battleground for their struggles, there had arisen a power 
which commanded respect ; and they were able to instill such 
fear of "plunder-loving Germany," and of her "greed for 
territory," in the smaller states, that even to-day the experi- 
ence of forty-three years of peace has been unable to eradi- 
cate it. Yet by placing a great restraint upon itself, even to 
the extent of occasionally waiving its lawful rights, this new 
Empire, strong by reason of its militaiy force, has proven 
itself a rock of security, and is chiefly responsible for these 
long years of peace. 

There has indeed been no lack of pretexts for war dur- 
ing this period, and often the great statesmanship of a 
Bismarck was necessary to extinguish, before it was too late, 
the glowing spark which threatened to set fire to all Europe. 
However, since Russia Is no longer bound by any treaty, 
since her interests have driven France into the arms of Rus- 
sia, and since England believes her economic and military 
supremacy in the world at large to be threatened by Ger- 
many, conditions are beginning to shape themselves so un- 
favorably for the German Empire that its patience will be 
unable to endure the policy of annoyance much longer, and 



6 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

the probability of a warlike solution at not too distant a time 
must be reckoned with. Let us examine what would be the 
interests of the chief, and therefore most dangerous oppo- 
nents of Germany in such a war, which would doubtless 
involve the whole of Europe. 

I. GREAT BRITAIN 

An American, but an enthusiastic Anglo-Saxon, Homer 
Lea, published a book a short time ago, "The Day of the 
Saxon," translated by Count E. Reventlow, as "Des Britis- 
chen Reiches Schicksalsstunde" (Berlin, 1913, E. S. Mittler 
& Son) . In this he describes the dangers which have threat- 
ened the British world empire, since it has lost so much of 
its former prowess and has neglected its preparations for war 
(so far as a sufficient land force is concerned), to such an 
extent that it is no longer in a position to protect its gigantic 
possessions all over the world. "The old ideals," he says, 
"that made possible the Empire have been put aside. The 
militant spirit has become of secondary consideration; it is 
now hardly more than the spirit of trade, lazy and satisfied 
with the accumulation of things which are useless to national 
and racial progress." On the other hand this world empire, 
extending over the whole earth and embracing all Its princi- 
pal regions, presents enormous difficulties in the way of the 
expansion of other nations. Consequently, a conflict with 
the principal states that are in urgent need of expansion, Ger- 
many and Japan, is inevitable, springing as it does from in- 
terests vital to the life of these states. In the case of Russia, 
however, which still has a vast territory at the disposal of her 
steadily increasing population, the motive for expansion lies 
in a natural endeavor to secure an assured means of commu- 
nication with the ocean. According to Homer Lea, Ger- 
many seems to be England's most dangerous opponent; 
indeed, England should never have permitted It to become 
united. She should rather have taken advantage of the dis- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 7 

union and dissension of Europe after Napoleon to make her- 
self mistress of the European continent. Whether she had 
the opportunity and power to do it, the author does not con- 
sider. Indeed, since 1870, Germany has actually become a 
dangerous — not opponent — but rival of England in the mar- 
kets of the world. The first blow at England's highly de- 
veloped industry was made by Alfred Krupp, as early as the 
London World's Fair of 185 i, when to the greatest achieve- 
ment of the English steel industry, a block of 1,000 pounds, 
he opposed a similar one of 4,400 pounds; and when, in the 
World's Fair of 1862, in addition to a block of 4,000 
pounds, he was able to exhibit breech-loading guns and huge 
propeller-shafts for ships, he won for the German Iron in- 
dustry the first place which had so long been claimed by the 
English. The perfect efficiency of his movable campaign- 
guns in the war of 1870-71 secured German gun-making a 
place in the world which, thanks to the untiring energy of 
our manufacturers, could not be disturbed even by the great 
efforts of English industry. Energetic representatives of 
other industries, too, rushed into the breach made by Krupp, 
and the resultant commerce, spreading to all parts of the 
world, soon enabled Germany to become an important rival 
in the world market. 

She was not yet a dangerous one, because as long as the 
British fleet had undisputed control of all the sea-routes, if 
it came to the worst, the German merchant marine could,' at 
the first favorable opportunity, be swept off the sea with little 
delay. The war of trade began to be dangerous only when 
Germany commenced to build warships to protect her com- 
merce, and finally proceeded from a purely defensive coast 
protection to the construction of a fleet of war which devel- 
oped into a considerable factor in German military power. 
The political causes for the opposition of England are due to 
an astonishing and obvious enough fear of German naval 
power. In order to make plain the motives which have hith- 
erto shaped England's policy, let us review her past. 



8 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

Ever since this country has played a part in the history 
of the great naval Powers, that is to say, ever since she 
started to secure for herself a position as a maritime power, 
her opponent has always been the strongest naval state at 
that particular time. Just as she was in constant opposition 
to the world dominion of Spain and Portugal, as long as 
these countries ruled the sea, so she turned against Holland, 
as soon as that country, after winning its independence from 
the Spanish yoke, had gained for itself the position of mis- 
tress of the seas. The moment Holland, misunderstanding 
its fundamental and vital necessities, and hard pressed on its 
land frontier, neglected its naval equipment, England took 
the field against another power, against France, which under 
Colbert's wise leadership, was growing powerful at sea. 
Great Britain persisted in this opposition as long as no other 
country seemed to her more dangerous. Wherever we find 
France, impelled by a restless ambitious policy, caught in 
some conflict, there we find Great Britain invariably on the 
side of the opponent, even when English interests were not 
directly concerned. And we find this state of affairs un- 
changed until there appeared on the horizon another power 
that threatened the Island Kingdom even more formidably 
than our western neighbor. 

Slowly, but steadily, Russia had extended her boundaries 
in Asia. With rare obstinacy she sent her Cossack hordes to 
the east and south, and England saw that she must prepare 
herself for the moment when her own endeavors at expan- 
sion, with India as her point of departure, would meet with 
opposition from Russia. The danger arose from the fact 
that there her strength was not great; that, therefore, in a 
conflict in the heart of Asia, she might easily be at a disad- 
vantage. It was necessary to wait for an opportunity to en- 
counter her future opponent at sea. This presented itself 
when Russia tried to increase her powers in the Balkans in 
the war against Turkey. The Crimean War broke out and 
suddenly we find England allied with her arch enemy. 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 9 

France, against the newer and more dangerous one. For a 
while peace appeared to reign between the two chief naval 
powers; but this state of affairs did not last long. Although 
since that time they have not actually been at war, it is still , 
well remembered what a bitter diplomatic struggle between 
the two countries was occasioned in the last quarter of the 
past century by the partition of Africa and the renewed colo- 
nial expansion of France in Asia and the South Seas. In 
1889 the English, concerned at France's naval power, con- 
siderably increased their fleet, and in 1898 both fleets were 
mobilized as a result of the Fashoda affair. Thereupon the 
first German naval law was promulgated. 

With one stroke England changed her policy. The 
English had hitherto regarded the development of Ger- 
many's naval interests unfavorably and had tried to check 
them wherever possible; but the diplomatic struggle which 
we are now accustomed to consider perennial did not begin 
until that moment. The more friendly aspect which she oc- 
casionally assumes must not deceive us in this respect; it is 
generally for the purpose of concealing secret animosity. 
And this, in accordance with the whole course of English his- 
tory, is inevitable. As soon as the German people, under the 
rule of a far-seeing monarch, conscious of their strength and 
of a definite purpose, prepared to forge a useful naval 
weapon, it was in accordance with English principles to re- 
gard that power as the enemy. But — let this be understood 
— it is the enemy, because it is building a fleet, and when this 
is destroyed, the pretext for hostility will immediately disap- 
pear. . . . The fleet destroyed, German commerce will natu- 
rally be deprived of the protection it surely needs, and, its 
merchant marine annihilated, it will be reduced to a cipher in 
the world market and can only re-establish itself slowly and 
with difliculty. 

Homer Lea is indeed of the opinion that the British 
world empire can be saved only by the complete destruction 
of Germany, and, according to his view, there are two sides 



lo GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

to the military relationship between them. The military re- 
lationship of Germany to the British Empire possesses a two- 
fold significance. "While the Saxon can deal with Russia 
only on land, or with Japan only by sea, a war with Germany 
includes both land and sea. The severity of this struggle 
will be in keeping with the means and forces employed: twice 
as great as with Russia or with an insular power like Japan. 
We have said that, if Germany gains control of the sea, the 
war is brought to a close by this single act, and ends in the 
downfall of the Empire. On the other hand, should the 
British navy destroy that of Germany, the only result is that 
conditions remain the same as they were before the war," for 
"only in a war with an insular nation is the navy pre-eminent. 
In a war against Russia it has no place. In an offensive con- 
flict with. Germany it Is of secondary importance. The Brit- 
ish navy has one duty — to remain supreme in its sphere, the 
sea. From the beginning to the end it is restricted to the 
defensive. The army alone possesses the power capable of 
deciding the war, and of insuring such peace as will prolong 
the existence of the Empire." He claims that it is necessary 
for the future greatness of Germany to destroy the Anglo- 
Saxon's world supremacy, and to build up her own world 
power out of the fragments, while he declares that it is 
England's chief duty to destroy German power. 

From such considerations Homer Lea deduces the neces- 
sity for Great Britain to create an invincible land force for 
the protection, not only of the Island Kingdom, but of the 
colonies as well. It is known that efforts in this direction 
have been made of late in England to a considerable extent 
and with the support of personages of standing, without 
overcoming the resistance of the nation. Such a measure 
would not only go contrary to England's deep-rooted concep- 
tion of personal liberty, but would also be opposed to those 
traditions, preserved in spite of fate and fortune, in accord- 
ance with which it has utilized the military forces of other 
countries on land, and by their sacrifices has reaped the two- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY ii 

fold advantage of crushing a resistance disagreeable to Eng- 
land and- of weakening in a salutary manner the strength of 
the allies. For there is the possibility that in a short time 
they may be transformed into active opponents. And should 
not such a course of action be considered practical in refer- 
ence to Germany as well? 

But more of this hereafter. First of all a hasty glance at 
British measures to secure permanent supremacy on the ocean, 
measures which serve not only as protection for the commerce 
of the United Kingdom, but for preparations for war as 
well. With admirable clear-sightedness, she has always been 
able to find, in all parts of the ocean, the countries which 
command the trade routes and to annex them ruthlessly. By 
means of Gibraltar, she controls the entrance to the Mediter- 
ranean; by means of Malta, the communication between its 
eastern and western basin; and by means of Cyprus, the en- 
trance to the Suez Canal, which, together with Egypt, is en- 
tirely in her hands. Thereby she controls the shortest water- 
route to India, the India Ocean, and the Pacific. But she 
extends her influence over the longer route by way of Africa 
through St. Helena and Ascension, as well as through her 
African colonies, while the route from the Red Sea into the 
Strait of Babel Mandeb is protected by the island of Perim. 
The way to the Pacific Ocean leads, furthermore, through 
the Strait of Malacca, and here a British port was made in 
Singapore. The construction of railroads was intended to 
afford the European states the possibility of rendering them- 
selves Independent of the water routes under the control of 
England. Russia did succeed in making connection with the 
Pacific by means of the Siberian Railroad, but her desire to 
acquire a permanently useful port was frustrated by the oppo- 
sition of Japan. Germany started building the Anatolian 
and Bagdad roads; whereupon England succeeded in wrest- 
ing an Important point, Kowelt, from Turkey and through 
the possession of the Bahrein Islands and Cape Jask, in- 
creased the obstacles which she can oppose to all shipping out 



12 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

of the Persian Gulf. Only one newly made water route has 
escaped British inroads, the Panama Canal, that connects the 
Caribbean, or as one may well call it, the American Mediter- 
ranean, directly with the Pacific Ocean, and from that abso- 
lute British supremacy on the sea has received a considerable 
blow. The island kingdom Is obliged to share her power — 
chiefly in the Pacific Ocean — with other great naval powers. 
However, she shares it only with the adjoining states, Japan 
and the United States, which possess naval stations there, 
and with France, which, it is true, was able to save portions 
of her territory in the East Indies from the greed of the 
English, and to increase her authority in Madagascar and 
Indo-China. She does not share it with Germany, which does 
not possess a single port of refuge on the whole route from 
Its possessions In Africa to the Pacific. 

And not only free water routes are necessary for naviga- 
tion, now that sailing ships have been supplanted entirely in 
the navy, and in the merchant marine to a certain extent, by 
steamships. As every step of progress that has been won by 
humanity can be made only at the cost of sacrifice, so naviga- 
tion has had to renounce unlimited freedom of action in re- 
turn for the manifold advantages of the steam-engine; a ship 
Is absolutely dependent on its supply of fuel for the boiler. 
Moreover, as a warship must carry the considerable burdens 
of Its armature, artillery, and ammunition besides. It is impos- 
sible for even the largest warships to exceed a certain limit In 
the amount of fuel they can carry. In consequence of this 
the length of time that a supply necessary for a certain speed 
can last, as well as the distance which a ship can cover without 
new supplies, that is, the radius of action, Is limited. If a re- 
newal of supplies cannot be effected, the vessel Is as unable 
to proceed as a locomotive, when the supply of coal and water 
has given out. 

With the Introduction of steamships, all sea-going na- 
tions had to consider the question of placing coaling stations 
at given distances. For this purpose, of course, only Islands 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 13 

and seaports which could afford sufficient protection for 
the transfer of coal were suitable, and the ownership for 
these must be acquired. Great Britain pursued this policy 
which proved an efficient weapon in her commercial rivalry 
with Germany, although it was a great obstacle to the utiliza- 
tion of her fleet in the decisive war she anticipated. She suc- 
ceeded in thwarting every attempt of the German Empire to 
win naval or coaling stations. Every movement and under- 
taking of German ships was viewed with suspicion, and when- 
ever it was even remotely possible that an attempt might be 
made to secure a port for a coaling station, a diplomatic pro- 
test or actual threats immediately followed. We can all re- 
member how in the struggle for Morocco, France was quite 
willing to grant certain regions to Germany, until England's 
threatening attitude encouraged her to resistance and forced 
Germany to abandon all pretensions to possessions there. 

As a result of this attitude on the part of our cousins 
across the channel, Germany's merchant and war marine were 
reduced to supplying themselves with coal from the stations 
of other nations, chiefly from those of England. Aside 
from the fact that, in return for this mark of hospitality, 
there are fixed charges for German ships and the resultant 
profit goes to a foreign nation, the question arises, where is 
Germany to find friendly nations who will supply her ships 
with fuel in case of war? English and French ports would 
be unquestionably closed to her; and whether the ports of the 
small European States would be open to her in defiance of 
Great Britain's threats is more than doubtful. Here we have 
an actual example of Germany's need of elbow-room, and of 
the manner in which England has set up an iron barrier In 
the way of Germany's necessary expansion. And It Is evi- 
dent that sooner or later it will be absolutely necessary for 
Germany to break these bonds, which. In the long run, will 
render her navigation unendurable, and, in case of war, ex- 
tremely dangerous. For this purpose, however, annihilation 
of Anglo-Saxon world supremacy is not the necessity for the 



14 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

future greatness of Germany that Homer Lea claims it to be. 
Germany's wants could be easily supplied out of the excessive 
riches of English possessions. But it seems as if England 
meant to continue the struggle until she should become abso- 
lute ruler of the seas. Then, according to her principles, she 
would constantly have to struggle against that nation at the 
time likely to become most dangerous; she would have to 
turn, In the first place, against Japan, an all too powerful op- 
ponent in the Pacific Ocean. In that case, she would have 
need of her whole naval force and this might appear hazard- 
ous In view of the strength of the German navy. Hence it 
would seem expedient to employ the first favorable opportu- 
nity of destroying the latter, her earlier enemy, and then to 
gain complete freedom of action in the Pacific. For this pur- 
pose the destruction of the German fleet would be sufiicient, 
and there Is no need of that complete annihilation of the Ger- 
man Empire, which Homer Lea Insists upon. 

Great Britain forged for herself another weapon, a net- 
work of cables, by which she connected all parts of the world 
with one another and with the Island Kingdom. For com- 
mercial, as well as for naval contests, a rapid means of com- 
munication Is of the utmost Importance. This makes possi- 
ble a concentration of leadership, by means of which a nation 
may profit by every Impending danger, and thereby subject 
her opponent, who Is cut off from the news service, to the 
most unpleasant surprises. As long as England alone con- 
trolled the entire network of cables, she could at will prevent 
their use by other nations whom she could plunge Into com- 
plete deafness and blindness concerning events In remote parts 
of the earth. Meanwhile, she preserved her own powers of 
hearing and vision and thereby secured all the advantages of 
the Initiative. The realization of these dangers has recently 
caused other nations likewise to lay cables, which are able. 
Independently of England — at least in some regions — to 
transmit news across the ocean. But, In the first place, these 
cables do not form a complete network, and. In the second, it 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 15 

is not improbable that, in case of war, England would cut 
them, and thus render them useless. 

The invention of wireless telegraphy now provides us 
with a means whereby we can be independent of the cable 
system. England followed its development very attentively 
and managed to have the seat of the Marconi Company trans- 
ferred to her shores. She strove with all her might to secure 
for herself a certain monopoly of the wireless system that 
she might in this, too, rule the world. Thanks to German 
science, she was unsuccessful. Germans have surpassed Mar- 
coni's achievements and thus have obtained a certain com- 
pensation for their lack of a cable. This is true, of course, 
only within certain limits, that is, so far as German appara- 
tuses are effective and so far as Germany has stations which 
can transmit communications. Therefore, it is of paramount 
significance that not so long ago the Kaiser was able to ex- 
change Avireless messages with the President of the United 
States of America. 

It is readily understood and generally known that, in an- 
ticipation of a severe struggle with Germany, England has 
secured powerful allies. To what extent in addition to Rus- 
sia and France, the smaller states, Belgium, Denmark and the 
Balkan countries are involved, is not yet evident. As Eng- 
land must reckon not only with the German Empire, but also 
with the Triple Alliance, the roles of the three great powers 
are determined, as is already quite clear. Great Britain is ap- 
parently trying to veil her intentions and to lull the suspi- 
cions of Germany, while she regards Italy with disapproving 
sternness. Italy's growing fleet and in addition her military 
occupation of the Turkish islands in the JEgean Sea, after 
the war between Italy and Turkey, are most undesirable for 
England's unlimited control of the Mediterranean. It seems 
as though the Sublime Porte were quite satisfied with this 
state of affairs and hesitates for that reason to withdraw its 
last officers from the interior of Tripoli ; and so Italy, in the 
meanwhile, is justified in keeping the islands, to prevent their 



i6 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

falling into other hands. When Sir Edward Grey declared 
that the situation in Europe would not become normal so long 
as a great power possessed these islands, Italy was disagree- 
ably conscious of the pressure which the English minister at- 
tempted to bring to bear upon her. This was especially no- 
ticeable, as^ at the same time, he was willing to leave to the 
discretion of the Greeks the evacuation of that part of Al- 
bania which they had occupied, although in the meanwhile in 
assembling their "holy battalions" on disputed grounds, they 
had not given evidence of a very compliant attitude. 

To Homer Lea's desire that Great Britain, in order to 
preserve its position of world power, should annihilate Ger- 
many, not only by robbing it of its fleet and crippling its 
commerce, but also by destroying its military force, I oppose 
the belief that England cannot wish to destroy Germany's 
power on land. That would be contrary to her whole policy 
in the past. A strong military power on the European conti- 
nent is indispensable to her, in order to divert to land war- 
fare the chief attention of that power which otherwise might 
endanger her naval supremacy. The political game which 
she has played with the continental countries has always been 
based on this central idea. Let us take an example. At the 
beginning of the War of the Austrian Succession, while 
France, by greatly increasing its colonial possessions, was 
England's greatest rival on the ocean, Austria was the great- 
est land power, hence the Island Kingdom assisted her in the 
war against Prussia allied with France. In 1755, after Eng- 
land had begun to combat the naval forces of France, she 
had to renounce the assistance of Austria, which had united 
with Russia and France to crush Frederick the Great, and to 
range herself on the side of her former enemy, the King of 
Prussia. But when she had achieved her purpose, when she 
had driven the French fleet out of the East Indies and had 
won the French possessions in Senegal, when, in 1760 with 
the storming of Montreal, she had finally torn Canada from 
the French and had weakened French naval power to such an 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 17 

extent that she could assert herself with full force in the 
West Indies and limit herself to blockading European ports 
— when, at last, the flourishing power of France was crip- 
pled, she suddenly withdrew her assistance from her Prussian 
ally. Prussia had served her turn in diverting the attention 
of the French from the sea. She must now manage her op- 
ponent alone, for England had no longer a motive for injur- 
ing France. It is customary to connect this sudden change of 
policy to Pitt's retirement, as if his friendship with Frederick 
had determined England's attitude. One can scarcely attrib- 
ute such sentimentality to an English statesman. 

Austria is no longer able to play the part against France 
which England once assigned to her! But a new power has 
arisen in Russia, whose vital interests run directly counter to 
those of England. It is only possible to preserve the balance 
of power against Russia by the opposition of a strong mili- 
tary force. France is useless for this purpose, since after the 
overthrow of Germany, she would immediately resume her 
former position of second strongest European military and 
colonial power. The role against Russia can be assigned only 
to Germany; and the purpose of the alliance (apparently so 
contrary to their mutual interests) between England and Rus- 
sia, against Germany, is twofold; to break Germany's com- 
mercial power, and to undermine thoroughly the long stand- 
ing friendship of Germany and Russia in order to play off 
Germany against Russia in the future. Therefore, it is not to 
England's interest to destroy Germany's power on land. On 
the contrary, the purpose of -xar -would be to destroy its fleet, 
zvhile sparing its army as much as possible. 

It is doubtful whether a fleet even so powerful as that of 
England could accomplish this alone. The question is par- 
tially solved by a British author, a recognized authority and 
teacher of naval strategy, J. S. Corbett, who has laid down 
general laws, based upon former proceedings in naval war- 
fare, in his book "Some Principles of Maritime Strategy" 
(London, 191 1). According to his theory, it is apparent 



1 8 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

from an examination of the history of maritime war that a 
contest between two fleets, leading to the destruction of one 
of them, can take place only when such is the wish of both 
parties concerned. This mutual desire for a decisive outcome 
can be satisfied only In open battle, when both parties have 
some prospect of victory, i. e., when they are almost equally 
strong. If this is not the case, the weaker usually attempts 
to postpone the Issue, while it tries to weaken its opponent by 
minor operations, until it can venture on a decisive blow with 
some hope of success. 

Against such tactics the stronger force, as Corbett proves, 
has always found itself in a difficult position. Every day that 
delays the decision costs a great deal of money — and coal as 
well, the acquisition of which is always fraught with difficul- 
ties; every day can bring unpleasant surprises; and therefore, 
the stronger force must try to bring about the decisive mo- 
ment as soon as possible. This may be accomplished In two 
ways; either by destroying by main strength the defences 
which protect the enemy In his fortified forts and by forcing a 
way under fire from the coast forts. Into the harbor where he 
has Intrenched himself (and one has seldom the audacity to 
do this), or by dislodging him and forcing him out Into the 
open. It is generally impossible to accomplish the latter al- 
ternative from the water if the ports are well protected. In 
fact, this can be done only by land forces brought for this 
purpose, which must be ^vided with the necessary heavy 
artillery, in order to gain, by means of an unexpected attack 
by land, positions in the foreground which admit of an effec- 
tive bombardment of the fleet anchored In the harbor. Thus it 
would be compelled to set sail and give decisive battle to Its 
opponent. The conduct of the Americans at Santiago, Cuba, 
and of the Japanese at Port Arthur exejgiplify this mode of 
procedure. Consequently, the British fleet of war unquestion- 
ably needs the support of an adequate military force. 

Now the question arises, will the present continental allies 
of England render her this service. In case of a conflict with 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 19 

Germany? And one cannot confidently answer in the affirm- 
ative, because here their interests are already at variance. 
The continental powers would look for the decisive action 
along the shortest route between Berlin and their own capi- 
tals, and they would have no reason to break up and consid- 
erably to weaken their military forces by furnishing large 
numbers of troops and large supplies of ammunition for the 
bombardment of German coast defences. On the contrary, 
they would probably wish to destroy the land forces of Ger- 
many, while sparing her fleet as much as possible — to be used 
as a menace against England, their future opponent. The 
lessons to be learned from England's past policy are just as 
evident to them as to us, and enable them to anticipate their 
future enemy in the same manner. If England desires to ac- 
complish her purpose, that is, the annihilation of German 
naval power, she must needs make use of her own unaided 
strength, and we shall make no mistake in assuming that the 
British expeditionary force of 150,000 men will be assigned 
the task of supporting the flieet by a descent upon the coast of 
the enemy. 

The further question as to what the attitude of these 
troops will be, especially as to how far they will share in the 
operations of the allied forces and be considered as reinforce- 
ments to the allies, can be answered by a few sentences of the 
English naval strategist. They are as follows : 

"This much is certain: The nation that commands the 
sea can do as it likes and can take as much or as little part in 
the war as it chooses; whereas even those who are strongest 
by land may, nevertheless, often find themselves in great 
straits." (p. 55.) 

"If the object of the war were unlimited and would 
consequently call forth your enemy's whole power, it is evi- 
dent that no decision of the struggle could be reached 
till his war power was entirely crushed. Unless one had a 
reasonable hope of being able to do this, It would be a bad 
policy to seek satisfaction by force, that is, one ought not go 



20 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

to war. In the case of a limited object, however, the com- 
plete destruction of the enemy's armed force would be more 
than necessary." (p. 42.) 

"If now we turn to British experience of continental war, 
we find that a land force has frequently been used, but we 
also find the policy almost invariably accompanied by a popu- 
lar disapproval as though there were something in it antago- 
nistic to the national instinct." (p. 60.) 

These three quotations characterize England's method of 
taking part in the wars of the continent. Since the beginning 
of the seventeenth century, she has almost always had at her 
disposal the necessary means of assuring to herself the con- 
trol over the seas, or at least of claiming that favorable state 
of affairs which Corbett calls "disputed ownership." This 
fortunate country has nearly always been able to meddle in 
the wars of the European powers to this extent and "to get as 
much out of them as she wanted." 

What she wanted of them is evident from the second 
quotation. Corbett is an admirer of our strategist, Clause- 
witz, and in his differentiation of the two distinct objects of 
war, the limited and the unlimited, he bases his conclusions 
on the latter's teachings. Clausewitz characterizes them with 
these words: "These two kinds of warfare are, first, the 
one in which the object is the downfall of the opponent, either 
to destroy him politically or simply to render him defense- 
less and to force him to a disadvantageous peace, and second, 
the one in which the object is merely to make certain conquests 
on the boundaries of the country, either with the intention of 
keeping them or of using them as a means of exchange when 
the terms of peace are arranged." The first case demands 
that the whole national strength be exerted; the second does 
not. Clausewitz gives an instructive example of war with 
limited purpose in a commemorative address of 1830-31, 
which contains a plan of attack against France. Conditions 
did not warrant a consideration of the complete overthrow of 
this state, and the suggestion of the German strategist was to 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 21 

make the conquest of Belgium the actual object of attack. 
"This country of medium size and great sources of supply is 
bounded by Holland and Germany; after its conquest the 
power that establishes itself there will not constitute a strate- 
gical point extending into distant hostile territory, and conse- 
quently, this conquest can be permanently maintained even 
under ordinary circumstances. The French might establish 
themselves In Belgium as strongly as they liked; they would 
always be in a weaker position than in the midst of their own 
country. When an army had made itself master of the Meuse 
River, it m.ight consider the conquest of Belgium as on the 
whole accomplished. We therefore believe that, if the arms 
of the allies can win a victory anywhere, and this must neces- 
sarily be assumed in the case of any offensive attack, the con- 
quest of Belgium would afford the easiest and at the same 
time least permanent victory." 

If we analyze the history of England, we must admit that 
though at times she has exerted the full strength of individual 
parts of her defensive forces, her navy and her finances, yet 
that demand for the whole national force, in which every man 
who could shoulder arms has been called to enlist, as in Prus- 
sia-Germany in 1 8 13 and in France in 1870, h^s never been 
made. She was able to avoid this by the fact that she never 
waged war with unlimited purpose — a splendid illustration of 
Clausewitz's teachings. With the exception of war in the 
colonies, she never desired completely to conquer a country 
or to destroy an opponent. She always had a limited object 
which she sought to attain unaided: seizure of individual pos- 
sessions across the sea, destruction of hostile naval forces, or 
commercial advantages. This may be due partly to a very 
clever policy, partly to that attitude of the people to which 
Corbett alludes. The British nation has never had any liking 
for or sympathy with the hard service of land warfare, ser- 
vice which commands innumerable sons of the peasantry to 
shoulder arms, and tears them from home and hearth. Either 
she employed for this purpose mercenary troops, when pos- 



22 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

sible, or else she caused her allies to shed blood for her alms, 
and for them, of course, the war could easily develop into an 
unlimited one. We need only instance the wars of Frederick 
the Great. 

Since England wages war with limited purpose only and 
dislikes to employ her army, one can draw one's own conclu- 
sions as to what her future policy will be in regard to the use 
of her land force. Again Corbett shows the way. He says: 
"Either the expeditionary force must act as an organic unit of 
the power which is making unlimited war without any reser- 
vations whatever, or else it should be given a definite terri- 
torial object with an independent leadership and organization, 
but with a limited function." (p. 59.) 

"But, what may be called the British or maritime form is 
in fact the application of the limited method to the unlimited 
type of warfare, as auxiliary to the larger operations of our 
allies — a method which has usually been open to us because 
the control of the sea has enabled us to select a theatre in effect 
truly limited." (p. 63.) 

This completely characterizes England's method of land 
warfare. It is immediately assumed that the continental ally 
will have to carry on a war with an unlimited object, and the 
chief burden will be gradually transferred to him. On the 
other hand, it is typical of the British that their expeditionary 
force is directed to avoid this as much as possible. There- 
fore, her co-operation as an organic unit of the force of our 
enemies can be expected only when Great Britain has no other 
means of accomplishing her particular purpose. 

A glance at the history of war shows us better than any 
explanation Corbett's idea of this method of warfare. 

Since the war of the Spanish Succession, in which Marl- 
borough advanced close on the borders of South Germany 
with British reinforcements, in order that together with the 
imperial arm.y he might fight a bloody and decisive battle 
with Louis XIV, never has an English army penetrated into 
the continent, so long as there was the slightest uncertainty as 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 23 

to the outcome. Only In Holland or in Hanover, during the 
wars of Frederick the Great, that is always close to the coast 
line, do we see British troops conducting a hesitating and 
painstakingly indecisive war. Who has forgotten the wav- 
ering of the Duke of Cumberland, which the names of Fon- 
tenoy in 1745, Lafeld in 1747, Hastenbeck in 1757 and the 
capitulation of Kloster Zeven call to memory? 

Then, too, in the course of the Spanish war against Na- 
poleon, when the unlucky Moore was replaced by the more 
skillful Lord Wellesley, we see the English (so long as their 
opponent is not wholly overcome), carefully maintaining a 
line of communication with the sea. And where it is cut off 
on one side, it is cleverly set up again in another direction. 
Only once, at Waterloo, do we see an English army taking 
part in a decisive battle. But here after the defeat of the 
allied forces, any delay in the settlement of affairs meant the 
prospect of a most undesirable prolongation of the war, and 
Wellington had no choice in the matter. 

"So all the way through voe find an endeavor to preserve 
the Vine of communication with the base of supply, which for 
the British is the sea-coast^ wherever there are ports suitable 
for the embarkation of troops, and to avoid a decision as long 
as it is not forced upon them by the nature of the case. JVith 
this goes an avoidance of anything that zvould oblige them to 
join too closely in the operations of their allies; that is what 
one may call the British or maritime method." 

With this preface we can attempt to form an idea of 
Great Britain's probable procedure in case of a war with 
Germany. 

What she would want most would doubtless be to employ 
her military force quite independently, and if she could, from 
a consideration of the preparations for war and the strength 
at the disposal of the allied forces, assure herself that they 
could cope with the German army alone, she would assert 
this independence by her choice of the seat of war. If she 
were not confident of this, and if the preservation of inde- 



24 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

pendent action on the part of her expeditionary force should 
be doubtful, the latter, functioning chiefly as an organic sec- 
tion of the whole, would have to take part in the operations 
of the whole. In this case a landing in Belgium — out of the 
reach of the influence of German troops — would enable Brit- 
ish troops to extend the left wing of the French army. 

Involuntarily, one recalls the opposition of the English 
press to the plan of the Dutch to renew the old fortresses of 
Flushing and to replace them with new ones, which would not 
only be able to protect its modern harbor against its use by 
the enemy, but also to create obstacles against the use of the 
western Scheldt for an entrance to Antwerp. In the face of 
the indisputable right of a sovereign state to provide for the 
defence of a harbor of importance to its own fleet (Holland 
has only one other, that of Helder) , and for the fulfilment of 
its duties as a neutral state, this was a strange opposition. So 
was the fact that the French and Belgian press united with 
the English in intimidating the Dutch in order to cause the 
failure of the government's plan. 

Herein lies the basis for the assumption that, in case of 
war with Germany, England's purpose is to land her expedi- 
tionary force in Antwerp, in order to place them at the side 
of France. And even if the new fortification of Flushing, as 
long as it is limited to a single line of defence on the right 
bank of the river is incapable of offering a lengthy resistance 
against attack, yet it could operate most unfavorably upon 
the entrance of so strong a transport fleet as the transfer of 
the British army would necessitate, and considerably delay a 
proposed landing in Antwerp. Everything would depend 
upon the rapidity of action — otherwise, British assistance 
would arrive too late and prove practically useless. 

Admitting, therefore, that the British expeditionary force 
in one way or another could succeed In joining with the 
French left wing and be enabled to take part in the opera- 
tions before it was too late; admitting that the first great vic- 
tories over the German armies had been won, and that they 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 25 

were sufficiently occupied by the French troops, then the sec- 
ond desired step for the British troops would begin when they 
freed themselves from undesired unlimited war and continued 
to work independently, that is, to seek for a limited territorial 
sphere of action. In accordance with Great Britain's pur- 
pose, this can be only the German coast of the North Sea, 
into the harbors of which, according to our presumption, the 
German fleet being the weaker, has withdrawn. The Brit- 
ish naval forces are already expectantly waiting for the Ger- 
man ships to be driven out to them after the army's successful 
bombardment of the land fortresses, so as to destroy them as 
was done at Port Arthur. 

How much time this would require, cannot be determined. 
The memory of Port Arthur warns us that we must count on 
considerable sacrifice of time and of human lives. At all 
events, the goal cannot be reached in the turn of a hand; and, 
therefore, it is not impossible that the line of communication 
of the present besieging army, hitherto protected by French 
and Belgian ports, might be greatly endangered by German 
attempts. The English have, however, always been very dex- 
terous in changing their lines of communication, when these 
have been jeopardized. There is a good example of their 
mode of operation in the case of England's Spanish campaign 
against Napoleon in 1808-9. Napoleon advanced victorious 
from Madrid against the British troops in Portugal. An 
English corps under the leadership of Sir John Moore, which 
Napoleon believed to be in retreat, outflanked him and 
threatened his line of supplies from the direction of the 
Duero. When Napoleon turned against it and in his turn 
broke through its line of communication with Lisbon, it re- 
treated, pursued by Marshal Soult, toward the northwest, 
where the British General Baird had meanwhile landed at 
Corunna. Although the ships arrived here late, and Moore 
had to give battle before the city in which he himself was 
killed, the embarkation succeeded and the English corps was 
able to return home. 



26 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

For the event of a war with Germany, England has al- 
ready prepared herself and secured a second line of communi- 
cation by (to put it mildly) promoting the extension of the 
tiny harbor of Esbjerg on the Danish west coast of Jutland. 
Esbjerg lies at a distance of about i8 miles from the Ger- 
man-Danish frontier, and hitherto the basin of its entire har- 
bor was about 39 acres in extent and had a depth of 13 to 20 
feet. The entrance to the "Grantlef" had a depth of 25 feet, 
but was obstructed by a sandbar through which a passage 
had been made by dredging. Those conditions would fully 
suffice for the export trade of butter and eggs to England. 
Now, however, the basin of the harbor has been enlarged to 
the extent of 100 acres, quays nearly two miles long have 
been constructed, which will enclose a harbor of 198 acres 
when it is completely dredged, and a water depth of 27 feet 
will be reached. It is very evident that such a dispropor- 
tionate widening of the harbor is not calculated for the ex- 
port of butter and eggs alone. 

We can scarcely doubt that in the event of war, Denmark 
will favor our opponents. All the fortifications in the king- 
dom indicate this. The coast forts of Copenhagen are 
being increased and strengthened in order to barricade the 
waterways (especially the Drogden) in a southerly direc- 
tion; in other words toward the German waters; the land 
forts, which would operate chiefly against an attack from 
the north, are neglected and apparently completely aban- 
doned. Of greater significance are the newly constructed 
fortresses of the Great Belt. Flanking these there is a wide 
arm of the sea between the islands of Zeeland, Falster, 
Laaland and Langeland, the exits to which are all barred 
by fortresses, so that it can be compared to a fox-hole, since 
the much indented seacoast of the islands affords innumer- 
able hiding places that would favor an attack on the Bay 
of Kiel and the Fehmarnbelt, as well as the exit of the 
Oeresund, and would be exceedingly difficult to attack. To 
crown It all, Minister Meergard has stated the purpose of 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 27 

this fortified bay plain!ly: to facilitate communication in 
several ways with the seat of war, and thus to make possible 
an attack on the hostile fleet. Therefore, if, on the one 
hand, Belgium were chosen as a means to the first step for 
the British expeditionary forces, aiding in a war with un- 
limited object, on the other hand, to Denmark Is allotted 
the part of providing a strong naval base and point of de- 
parture for the land forces in the second step. This would 
be a war with limited object, in this case an attack on the 
German harbors and the destruction of the fleet. 

Aside from the less important undertakings of the Brit- 
ish fleet, Great Britain would, according to Corbett, leave 
to her allies the task of engaging the German land forces 
so that only small divisions would be able to advance 
against the English operating in a limited area, while the 
latter would have as their sole aim the annihilation of the 
German fleet. Thus the expeditionary force would need 
to fight only these weak divisions. 

Now the question arises whether England's allies would 
be satisfied with such a division of labor and with a limita- 
tion of British troops to this restricted purpose. If we may 
adopt the Idea of an unnamed French General,* this seems 
very doubtful. He takes up the principal points in this 
manner. 

I. Purpose of landing: "As far as the strategic points 
are concerned, that will depend on the general situation. It 
might be necessary to rush assistance to the French against 
the German troops invading France, or to assist the Rus- 
sians hard pressed by the Germans and the Austrians on 
the banks of the Vistula and the Dniester." (pp. 32-33.) 

"A feeling of discomfort is aroused. The people be- 



*"Die englische Invasion in Deutschland," von einem franzosischen 
Generalstabsoffizier. Verlag "Politik," Berlin, 1912. ("The English 
Invasion of Germany," by an officer of the French General Staff. 
Published by "Politik," Berlin, 1912.) 



28 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

come uneasy. The soldiers become panic-stricken. . . . All 
this makes a breach in the self-confidence of all con- 
cerned. . . . Other Allies will appear: The Danes or the 
Dutch, as the case may be." (pp. 7-8.) 

2. Place of Landing: In short, anywhere. The author 
seems to prefer the mouth of the Ems, or the Vistula. But 
other points on the coast of the Baltic Sea (Danish terri- 
tory) are considered suitable. 

3. Means of Landing: Deception as to the intended 
point and surprise. 

As a matter of course, such advice for the utilization 
of the British land forces is not to be considered authorita- 
tive for the French command. Nevertheless it affords a 
conception of the Ideas which are current on this point in 
the military headquarters of our western neighbor, and of 
the wishes, which they express to their English allies; that 
is, that they would prefer to regard the English expeditionary 
force as a purely auxiliary force, as reinforcements, not op- 
erating on an independent plan, established by the British 
staff of command, but only held in readiness to furnish as- 
sistance wherever the course of the war might render it 
desirable to rescue one ally or another, either the French 
in their country, or the Russians on the Vistula, or the 
Dniester. We may presume that the English fleet will be 
able to cope with the German, even without the assistance 
of land forces. The Allies would content themselves even 
without the entire annihilation of Germany. 

This view appeared once before when It was a question 
of the promise made by the English Government to France, 
to send an army of relief In case of a war with Germany. 
It was to be employed as auxiliary troops for the French 
Army, and there was no mention of Its independent utiliza- 
tion for special purposes In the Interest of England. In 
France the opinion prevailed that England would unselfishly 
furnish a military force to serve French interests. This Is 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 29 

preposterous in the case of this country, which never yet 
subordinated its own interests to those of other nations. 
Quite the contrary, in many cases it utilized their forces for 
its own purposes and interests. 

At this point it is already obvious that the interests of 
England and her allies are widely divergent, owing to the 
fact that their wishes are so incompatible. Great Britain 
must wish to destroy our fleet, but to spare our army. France 
and Russia must endeavor to crush the German army and 
preserve the fleet as a trump-card, which can be played in the 
future against the increasingly powerful Island Kingdom. 

It is interesting to note, from the utterances of the French 
oflicer, that his countrymen count unfailingly upon the help 
of Denmark and even of Holland, but are prudently silent 
on the score of Belgium. If the neutral states had not joined 
the alliance before the beginning of the war, the appearance 
of English troops on the German coast must bring this about 
and produce an over-powering effect on the morale of the Ger- 
man troops, even though the invading army, as the author 
says, were soon to be checked at the coast by the German 
army of defense, and find itself limited to defensive warfare. 
Such a paralysis of their forces might not suit the English 
after all. 

The fabulous armament of her tw'o allies might well 
astonish England. If her aim is to destroy the German fleet 
at any cost; if (in accordance with Corbett's advice), she en- 
trusted her expeditionary force with the limited object of 
driving our fleet, should it withdraw into the harbors, out 
under the cannon of her warships, then she cannot want the 
war to come to a rapid end, since for her purpose she needs 
time, considerable time. If the enormous French and Rus- 
sian forces, pouring in upon Germany simultaneously from 
opposite sides should succeed — and for this purpose the arma- 
ments have been so increased — in crushing out armies with a 
few mighty blows, England, with her dilatory methods 
(sieges and the conquest of seaports), might conceivably 



30 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

find that she had not sufficient time to accomplish this, re- 
gardless of the fact that she is not particularly concerned 
about the destruction of the German army. 

Perhaps England seems more friendly to us for that rea- 
son at present. Perhaps the consideration, that the attack 
and destruction of our navy and merchant marine is impos- 
sible without damage and loss to her own fleet, is gaining 
ground. Germany is England's best customer, and she in 
turn rehes in many respects upon German industry. Great 
Britain has more merchant ships on the high seas than we 
and they are less liable to destruction by our cruisers than 
are ours by the English. The English merchant ships can- 
not obtain sufficient protection from her warships on the dis- 
tant seas, should these be detained in European waters to 
overpower our fleet. Finally, the Island Kingdom is de- 
pendent to such a degree upon a constant supply of provi- 
sions, that the discontinuance of them would bring about 
famine, and with it quite appreciable distress within a very 
short time. The proof of this was shown in the strike of the 
longshoremen, which by cutting off the supply of foodstuffs 
in the harbors of the capital, exposed its population to fam- 
ine. England has not only the advantages of a situation se- 
cure against a strong invasion, but also the disadvantages 
contingent to it. As long as the Island Kingdom was sole 
mistress of the seas, these disadvantages were not important 
and she could allow herself the luxury of neglecting her own 
agriculture in order to give her sole attention to industry and 
allow herself to be nourished by foreign countries. These 
times are over forever. England cannot conceal from her- 
self the fact that she must already share her control of the 
sea with other nations. Nor could this be changed by the de- 
struction of our fleet; for everywhere fleets grow out of the 
water, and even rich Albion cannot permanently keep pace 
with the general strife for naval power. 

Besides this, the fact is that it is not only a question of 
large amounts of money, but also of the manning of the great 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 31 

warships that are being constantly built, and are useless with- 
out a very strong crew. Secretary of State v. Tirpitz recent- 
ly Informed us that expenses for the navy in the last five 
years have increased by $54,000,000 in England, in Germany 
only $13,750,000; that we are far behind not only Great 
Britain, but also her two allies, since the increase in France 
amounts to $33,500,000 and in Russia for the fleet of the 
Baltic Sea alone to as much as $75,500,000. This should 
give the British something to think about. As for the sec- 
ond point, the manning, it is an open secret how difficult it is 
in the case of a gradual increase of a fleet to provide at the 
proper time for the augmentation and the training of its 
complement of men, not so much in the case of sailors as in 
that of engineers and officers. 

It is no secret for us that Great Britain is at present at a 
disadvantage in this very respect. It was affirmed, and 
doubtless correctly so, that Mr. Churchill suggested to Ger- 
many a year's holiday from the construction of warships, in 
order to gain a year in which to acquire the necessary trained 
crew and officers. It was a clever idea, as England could 
sufficiently occupy her dock-yards in shipbuilding for other 
powers and need not even lag behind in the supply of her own 
ships, since in case of need the foreign ships, lying at her 
wharves, could immediately be impressed into her own navy. 
Germany was not caught in the net, however — for the sim- 
ple reason that she did not know how to provide employment 
for her own dockyard laborers during a whole year. The 
proposal has, however, contributed toward urging our rep- 
resentatives in the Reichstag to greater — let us say — pru- 
dence regarding our cousins across the sea, since the word 
"mistrust" is taboo at present. It may not be out of place 
either to recall the fact that England (at France's request in 
February, 1870) inquired confidentially of the Prussian 
Government if it would not consent to a simultaneous de- 
crease of the military contingent on the part of both nationis 
in the interest of European peace, and this took place almost 



32 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

immediately before the outbreak of the war with France, the 
instigation of which I need not refer to. (Cf. Bismarck's 
letter of Sept. 2, 1870.) 

Thus there are many reasons why England should avoid 
picking a quarrel with Germany at present. It is said that 
the relations between the two states are less strained, and that 
a more cordial spirit is developing; it is even recognized that 
in many questions they can work together, for the two coun- 
tries have numerous interests in common. 

But we must not forget that it was England that provoked 
this menacing coalition, unnatural, because not based upon 
community of interest, and that she endeavored to cause our 
few remaining friends to desert us. It must not be believed 
that our blood-relationship to England has the least influence 
or that she would avoid attacking us because hitherto we 
have really never crossed swords. How should England 
ever have had any idea of fighting us, as long as we were not 
bold enough to build a fleet to protect our coast and our 
great growing commerce? It was this very thing that 
changed the condition of affairs. If, therefore. Great Britain 
has every reason not to advance impetuously, but rather to 
hold back prudently, we must not deceive ourselves into 
thinking that she will not seize the first favorable opportunity 
for taking us by surprise and for casting the declaration of 
war into our harbors with the first cannon-shots. Even though 
she be inclined to peace herself, her allies will have very little 
inclination to support to no purpose the burden of an ar- 
mament which, for France, at least, is not bearable much 
longer. When they consider the time to be ripe, England 
will not be able to stand back. 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 33 



II. RUSSIA 

Our eastern neighbor has really no reason to harbor a 
grudge against Germany. Even though Germany's conduct 
at the Congress of Berlin in 1878 has repeatedly been de- 
scribed in Russia as treachery and thereby the prejudice 
against us has been increased, yet we are fully justified in 
bringing forward the representation of events that Prince 
Bismarck has given in his "Reflections and Reminiscences" to 
which I will refer. 

In response to the Russian inquiry whether Germany 
would remain neutral if Russia went to war with Austria, 
Bismarck, when pressed for a definite answer, in October, 
1876, gave the Russian ambassador the following reply: 
"Our first care was to preserve the friendship between the 
great monarchies, which in a struggle with one another had 
more to lose as regards their opposition to the revolution [in 
the Balkan principalities] than they had to win. If, to our 
sorrow, this was not possible between Russia and Austria, 
then we could endure indeed that our friends should lose or 
win battles against each other, but not that one of the two 
should be so severely wounded and injured as to endanger 
Its position as an Independent Great Power, taking Its part 
in the councils of Europe." (II, p. 214.) Thereupon the 
Russian storm clouds withdrew from Galicia to the Balkans, 
and Russia bought the neutrality of Austria by the cession of 
Bosnia and Herzegovina in the treaty of Relchstadt. 

"The result for Russia, even after the Congress of Berlin, 
remained one of the most favorable, if not the most favor- 
able, which she has ever obtained since the Turkish wars." 
(II, p. 106.) But "the Indignation of Russia at the result 
of the Congress of B-erlln was one of the manifestations 
which become possible, though contrary to all truth and rea- 
son, In a press so little intelligible to the people as that of 
Russia in its foreign relations, and with the coercion which is 



34 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

easily exercised upon it. The whole influence which Gort- 
chakoff . . . was strong enough to represent in the press, 
with the Moscow "Viedomosti" at its head, produced 
an appearance of indignation at the injury which Rus- 
sia through German perfidy suffered at the Berlin Con- 
ference. But the fact is that no wish was expressed 
by Russia at the Berlin Congress which Germany would 
not have proposed for acceptance, if circumstances re- 
quired, by energetic representation to the English Prime 
Minister. Instead of being grateful for this, it was 
found conducive to Russian policy, under the leadership of 
Prince Gortchakoff and the Moscow newspapers, to work 
on toward a further estrangement between Russia and Ger- 
many, for which there is not the slightest necessity in the in- 
terest of either one or the other of these great adjoining em- 
pires. We envy one another nothing, and have nothing to 
win from one another which we could turn to account." (II, 
p. io8.) 

"It was expected at St. Petersburg that in the diplomatic 
discussion for carrying out the decisions of the Berlin Con- 
gress we should immediately in every case support and carry 
through the Russian interpretation as opposed to that of Aus- 
tria and England, and especially without any preliminary un- 
derstanding between Berlin and St. Petersburg. The demand 
which I at first only indicated, but afterwards unequivocally 
expressed, that Russia should tell us confidentially, but plain- 
ly, her wishes, so that they might be discussed, was evaded; 
and I had the impression that Prince Gortchakoff expected 
from me, as a lady from her admirer, that I should guess at 
and represent the Russian wishes without Russia having her- 
self to utter them, and thereby to undertake any responsibil- 
ity. Even in cases where we could assume that we were com- 
pletely certain of Russian interests and intentions, and where 
we believed ourselves able to give a voluntary proof of our 
friendship toward the Russian policy without injuring our 
own interests, we received a grumbling disapproval, because, 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 35 

as it was alleged, we had not met the expectations of our Rus- 
sian friends. Even when that was undoubtedly the case, we 
had no better success. In the whole proceeding lay a calcu- 
lated dishonesty, not only toward us, but toward the Em- 
peror Alexander, to whose mind the German policy was to 
be made to appear dishonest and untrustworthy." (II, pp. 
217-218.) 

It is known that, in consequence of these intrigues, the 
Emperor Alexander was prompted to send an autograph let- 
ter to Emperor William to this effect: "If the refusal to 
adapt the German vote to the Russian is adhered to, peace 
between us cannot be maintained." (II, p. 219.) In 1879, 
also, it was due only to the wisdom and mildness of our aged 
Emperoi- that Gortchakoff's coquetry with France did not 
lead to a war between Germany and Russia. Perhaps, how- 
ever, the French did not find the moment propitious, as the 
words of the Russian prince seem to imply: "I should have 
wished to go to war, but France has other Intentions." (II, 
p. 219.) 

There is no doubt that the complaints about our attitude 
at the Congress of Berlin are only pretexts and have no foun- 
dation, a fact which Russian diplomats have long realized; 
but they afford a desirable means of agitation and are, there- 
fore, constantly reiterated. The political developments 
which destroyed the friendship with Germany lie In another 
direction. We will recognize them. If we follow Russia's at- 
tempts at expansion. 

Here Homer Lea points out the way. Since the begin- 
ning of the 1 8th century, Russia has turned her endeavors at 
expansion in certain definite directions, which were deter- 
mined by her recognized need of a seacoast. Though the 
country already extended from the Dnieper to Behring Sea 
and from the Arctic Ocean to the northwest bank of the 
Caspian Sea, even so, sea trafliic was not possible, since, on 
the north, the water front is hemmed in by ice, and the Cas- 
pian Sea has no outlet. In the northwest. It was necessary to 



2,6 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

oust the Swedes, in order to gain possession of the Baltic Sea, 
and on the west to tear from Poland Little and White Russia. 
On the south Russia is bound by the Black Sea ; on the south- 
east the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus Mountains must be 
protected, and the route through Turan to India must not be 
lost sight of. On the East, finally, it was necessary to pos- 
sess economically important stretches of the Pacific seacoast. 

Russia has spared no sacrifice of time or men in achiev- 
ing this purpose, and she did not permit herself to be thwart- 
ed by any defeat, however bloody, from continuing in the 
same path, in order by constant perseverance to win success. 
"Russia in her progress, is concerned no more with the de- 
vastation following her wars than is Russian nature with the 
destitution caused by her winters. In the i8th century this 
empire sent into her wars 4,910,000 troops; of these only 
1,380,000 survived. In the 19th century the number of 
troops engaged was 4,900,000; the casualties were 1,410,- 
000. Yet the population of Russia at the beginning of the 
18th century was only twelve million, at the beginning of the 
19th only thirty-eight million. Having for two hundred 
years witnessed the fortitude and determination with which 
Russia's 17th century plans for expansion have been pursued, 
we are unable to believe that she will voluntarily abandon 
them. Heretofore these same Russians have never faltered, 
never hesitated; without haste, always hopeful in defeat, reti- 
cent in victory, never seeing the ground they have furrowed 
with combat and hillocked with their dead, they have kept 
their eyes constantly on those distant, yet well defined hori- 
zons toward which they have been directed." (Homer Lea, 
pp. 130-131.) 

We now have to follow only the expansion toward the 
northwest, the west and the south. On the west, after the 
destruction of the Polish kingdom, the Russians forced their 
way to the Pruth River and across the Vistula ; on the north- 
west, they conquered the Baltic provinces and drove the 
Swedes from Finland; on the south, they are lords of the en- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 37 

tire coast of the Black Sea from the mouth of the Danube to 
beyond the Caucasus. But even so they have not attained 
their object. The Baltic Sea is connected with the ocean 
only by narrow and dangerous passages and these narrow 
straits can easily be completely blocked. The exit from the 
Black Sea, through the Bosphorus and the Hellespont, is 
closed to the Russian fleet of war by Constantinople and by 
treaties. In both directions Russia has come considerably 
nearer her object, it is true, but no longer are there small and 
weak nations in her path. Great powers, instead, now have 
decided interest in stopping the victorious advance of the 
Russians. 

The Russo-Turkish wars of the last century, although 
they were waged to free the Christian States of the Balkans 
from the Turkish yoke, were aimed at placing these states 
under the influence and suzerainty of the Czar and were to 
afford him an entrance to Constantinople. In this plan, the 
interests of Austria were vitally affected, for her whole com- 
merce with the Orient would have been endangered. To this 
is due the antagonism between Austria and Russia every time 
the Balkan question crops up. This was very apparent in the 
last Balkan war, in which Russia appeared as the moving spir- 
it and permitted herself to be prevented from entering into 
it, preparations for war having already been made, only by 
the fact that her ally France — as in 1870 — was not suflicient- 
ly equipped to successfully join her. For against these allies, 
Germany arose threateningly, and Italy, too, felt bound more 
closely to Germany by the endangering of her considerably 
increased interests in the Mediterranean. 

Russia has always realized that she will never attain her 
object in the Balkans without waging a victorious war not 
only against Austria, but also against Germany. This binds 
her fast to France, on whose assistance she can rely under all 
circumstances, as long as there is any chance of overpowering 
the Triple Alliance, Consequently, it is not the fact that 
Russia's interests run directly counter to those of Germany 



38 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

which caused the recent outcry against us, but rather the op- 
position which our ally must make against Russian attempts 
in the Balkans, in order to protect its vital interests, and the 
support which the German Empire has given its ally. 

In the northwest, Russia has advanced to the Tornea 
River (Sweden). A distance of only about 94 miles separ- 
ates her most advanced position from the long desired har- 
bor on the ocean — Narvik, in the bay of the West Fiord 
(Norway), and nothing but a state with the small popula- 
tion of 5,500,000 stands in her way. All preparations to 
overrun this territory have been made for some time; a rail- 
road has been constructed to the boundary river and ends at 
Tornea. But as it is a coast railroad it can, if necessary, be 
easily threatened by an enemy commanding the sea. Conse- 
quently, a second road was built so far into the Finnish mari- 
time provinces that the frontier is not more than 250 miles 
distant and a third is under construction farther east. Every 
means is being employed toward the Russiiication of Fin- 
land, and troops have been sent forward to the northern gar- 
risons. In short, one cannot escape the impression that Rus- 
sia has made all preparations to overcome the possible oppo- 
sition of Sweden with a mighty blow and to force a passage 
to Narvik, on the shore of the Atlantic. 

But here, too, she must reckon with the opposition of 
Germany. The Swedes are fully conscious of the danger 
threatening them. In order to send troops to the northern 
province of Norbotten, which is very sparsely populated on 
account of its unfavorable climatic and economic conditions, 
and to provision them upon the scene of action, a railroad has 
been built as far as the Tornea River, and, as basis of sup- 
port, at Boden, a ring of fortifications has been constructed 
on the Lulea River, about 63 miles from the boundary river, 
equipped with all modern means of defence. So the passage 
through to the coast will not prove altogether easy of achieve- 
ment. The entire peasant population of Sweden has been 
aroused to such a pitch of excitement by the danger which 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 39 

threatens them that they are wlUing to contribute Hfe and 
property for the defense of their country, as the journey of 
33,000 farmers to Stockholm has proven. At the same time 
many a longing glance falls on Germany, a powerful people 
of the same stock, whose armies could well afford powerful 
support to the hard pressed little folk. So it is by no means 
impossible that the danger which Russia threatens may be 
the means of a closer bond between two nations already so 
congenial, with whom Russia would have to reckon. That, 
too, adds a plausible reason for the discord with Germany. 
Russia has received innumerable benefits from Germany. 
Without the large immigration from our country in particu- 
lar she would be still more backward in her development 
than she actually is. It is not too much to say that every- 
thing In the line of industrial progress In Russia has arisen 
for the most part under German auspices, that ev^en in the 
leading positions of the government, the most Important 
work is in the hands of men of German descent, even though 
they have become Russianized. In the army the ablest lead- 
ers are generally of German blood, though like true Germans 
they have adapted themselves to the customs of the country 
to which they have consecrated their services and have trans- 
formed themselves Into the most faithful and — In contrast to 
most natives — unselfish Russians. But the mental and mate- 
rial services which Germany has rendered Russia have never 
been appreciated by the latter. On the contrary, they have 
generally aroused nothing but jealousy, envy and hatred and 
have contributed largely at times to the persecution of the 
Germans and to their expulsion from the country. For hatred 
of the Germans lies deep In the heart of the Slav, as is appar- 
ent, not only In Russia, but to the same degree In the Slavic 
portions of Austria-Hungary and In the Balkan Peninsula. 
There the seeds of distrust, which France endeavors un- 
ceasingly to sow, thrive all too well, and the friendship be- 
tween Germany and Austria-Hungary, which Gortchakoff 
attempted in vain to alienate, thanks to Bismarck's keen eye 



40 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

and clever intervention, was bound to become more pro- 
nounced after the Balkan war ended without any furtherance 
of Russia's ambitions. 

It cannot be denied that the hostile relations of the Bal- 
kan sister states, Bulgaria and Servia, have caused Russian 
statesmen much annoyance, though, to be sure, it has pre- 
vented the creation of any nation, which would attempt to 
withdraw from subjection to Russian authority, as Rumania 
did. She had to suffer sorely from Russia's ingratitude for 
her self-sacrificing aid In the war of 1877; but Bulgaria and 
Servia have .so often experienced Russian unreliability and 
perfidy that it is astonishing that they continue to bow their 
necks under the old yoke, and listen to siren songs from St, 
Petersburg. Did not Servia recently, relying on the promised 
support of Russia, pick a quarrel with Austria-Hungary and 
continue it with astonishing obstinacy till she saw that, after 
all, she need expect no help from Russia ? Was not Bulgaria 
placed in an extremely critical position in 1885, at the out- 
break of the Bulgaro-Servian War, through the fact that the 
Czar recalled all the Russian officers who held the leading po- 
sitions in the Bulgarian army? Was she not left in the lurch 
last year when she trusted in Russia's promise to prevent 
Rumania from intervening in the war, and when Russia in- 
stead, in a measure, commanded Rumania to make peace by 
intervention, just at the time when Bulgaria was hard pressed 
on all sides by the Servians, the Greeks and the Turks? 

Who can judge what will eventually result from the 
present confusion on the Balkan peninsula? Will Bulgaria, 
having learned a lesson from such experience, ally herself 
with Turkey? Will Rumania unite with Greece, and what 
part will Servia, the trouble-maker, play? Real and durable 
may be two different things. Through Bulgaria's hatred for 
Greece and Servia, which was Intensified by the second Bal- 
kan war, the unquenchable zeal of Russia will attempt to re- 
peat the political game, notwithstanding the collapse of the 
Balkan federation established under her protection. The con- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 41 

ference of the leading Balkan statesmen who met "accident- 
ally" in the Russian capital, can have no other purpose than 
that of making the most of Russian influence, in order to 
create an obstacle to Austrian interests. Then an opponent 
to Germany's ally might arise in the Balkan states, which 
could harass her when she was endeavoring on the one hand 
to protect herself against a Russian attack and on the other 
to hasten to the assistance of Germany. 

There is no doubt that the Russian attempts at expan- 
sion, as they conflict more and more with the interests of the 
great European powers, will meet with ever increasing ob- 
stacles, and obstacles more difficult to overcome, and that 
thorough-going concentration against these well organized 
governments becomes absolutely necessary for Russia, in or- 
der to counterbalance them. It was a generally accepted idea 
that the severe blows which the Czar's empire suffered from 
its defeats in eastern Asia, from the revolution which fol- 
lowed, from the demoralization of the officials, civil and 
military, and, finally, from the various crop failures, would 
prove hindrances to the internal development of the country. 
Thus the strides which Russia has made in every respect In 
the last few years are astounding. In the first place, there is 
the agrarian organization, which purposes to put an end to 
the pauperization of the peasants. It is reported that, to- 
ward the end of the year 19 12, the establishment of more 
than a million independent, separate farms has been com- 
pleted, through which the peasants are enabled to work their 
small holdings freely. The occupation of Siberia is carried 
on with such zeal that from 1907 to 19 12 no fewer than 
2,400,000 people of both sexes settled there; and it is hoped 
within a few years to bring all the land fit for cultivation un- 
der the plough. This occupation of Siberia, especially, is of 
tremendous military significance, since by this means the pos- 
sibility arises of basing the defence of the east Asiatic pos- 
sessions of Russia upon the strength of the country itself, 
and not of being obliged, as heretofore, in case a conflict 



42 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

should break out with Japan or with China, to send large 
masses of troops from the west of the empire. The seven 
army corps that are always maintained in Siberia can already 
be strengthened by a reserve army from among the inhabi- 
tants there of at least 285,000 men. 

Just as the development of agriculture has doubled the 
export trade of Russia ($687,500,000) between 1895 ^^^ 
191 1 and has raised the demand for agricultural machinery 
to the value of $59,500,000, so its industry presents the 
same surprising picture; and, in spite of their constantly in- 
creasing number, the factories cannot yet satisfy the demands 
of the population. The financial conditions of the country, 
also, have shaped themselves very favorably since the gold 
standard was adopted. In addition to this the national banlc 
has been reorganized. In spite of the war with Japan and 
its huge cost ($900,000,000), Russia has succeeded in pre- 
serving her gold reserve so well that in October, 1905, it 
amounted to about $625,000,000. It was still at about the 
same level in 1908, but had risen to $850,000,000 by 1912. 
However, Russia is clever enough not to use this gold re- 
serve for the present considerable expenditures necessitated 
by the army and the national defense; she can draw on her 
banker, France, to better advantage. In this way a safe finan- 
cial basis for the anticipated war is assured. 

That precautions for such a war — and preparations on 
the greatest scale imaginable — are under way is not admitted 
by the usually communicative Russian press. This is a very 
significant sign, especially as what one does hear is calcu- 
lated to excite one's closest attention. 

In all former wars In which Russia engaged the lack of a 
well developed network of communications — in early times 
of roads, in the last century of railways — has been a great 
obstacle to rapid mobilization and to the provisioning of the 
armies. The greater the distances which divided the posi- 
tions of the troops from one another and from the scene of 
action In this enormous country, covered largely with exten- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 43 

sive swamps and forests, the more serious became this state 
of affairs. 

Therefore, the hurried construction of the Trans-Siberian 
Railway had to precede the inevitable collision with Japan 
following upon the Russian occupation of Manchuria; and 
the difficult task of building the road along the banks of Lake 
Baikal had to be continued during the war. Consequently 
a large part of the loan of $500,000,000 which had been ob- 
tained from France had to be used for the purpose of com- 
pleting with the greatest possible rapidity, the network of 
railroad lines which connect the interior of the empire with 
the German and Austro-Hungarian frontiers. 

The construction of these roads requires years for com- 
pletion, and the constant demands of the allies must be satis- 
fied in other ways. There were two possibilities : shortening 
the distance between the troops and the scene of action, that 
is, the routes to the western frontier; and increasing the 
standing army, so that it would have no need of very large 
numbers of reservists, who would have to be transported by 
rail, to fill the ranks. Russia has resorted to both of these 
expedients. Army corps were sent to the frontier in three 
directions; to the east, against Japan and China, where, at 
the same time, they were increased from five to seven ; to the 
southeast in the Caucasus against Turkey, and to the west 
against the German and Austro-Hungarian frontiers. There, 
also, two new army corps were established, and, in addition, 
no fewer than nineteen regiments of cavalry. 

In order to comply with the further demand of France 
that they should not restrict themselves to the defensive, but 
begin the war by taking the offensive, the Russians were ad- 
vised to increase the regular strength of the divisions that go 
into action first, so that the attack could commence without 
calling out the reserves. This object was achieved by pro- 
longing the time of military service. It was fixed at three 
years, that is, from the first of January to the end of the third 
year of service. However, the recruits had been called in the 



44 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

preceding autumn, and the Minister of War as usual exercised 
his authority to order their dismissal In November of the 
third year of service. He could, it is true, hold the reservists 
in the service still longer by imperial permission, if there 
were sufficient reason for It. This power, which was exer- 
cised last year during the strained relations with Austria, has 
now been sanctioned by a law prolonging the term of service 
up to the first of April of the fourth year of service. 

What is the result of this? During the training period, 
the infantry will have served three and the cavalry four years, 
the entire army will have been increased by one-fourth of Its 
number during this most difficult and critical period, and will 
be as ready to fight then as after the end of the term of ser- 
vice. The difference between this method and that of our 
army, which during its time of service has only one full year 
of active training, is obvious. Furthermore, It must not be 
overlooked that in case a war should begin In the spring the 
reserves, Instead of being dismissed, can be retained. In order 
to have troops practically of war strength at hand for imme- 
diate service. If, then, Russian measures do not go so far as 
the change of organization In France does, the latter's de- 
mands are fully complied with nevertheless. The peace-foot- 
ing of the Russian army Is estimated as follows: 

For winter of 1913-14, total 1,840,000, in Europe 1,322,000 
For summer of 19 14, total 1,415,000, In Europe 1,017,000 
For winter of 1914-15, total 1,860,000, in Europe 1,337,000 
For summer of 1915, total 1,435,000, In Europe 1,032,000 
For winter of 19 15-16, total 1,900,000, In Europe 1,045,000 

In the winter months these numbers give approximately 
the entire war strength of the army. Assuming that Russia 
should, on the whole, agree to the plan of campaign that the 
French general Cherfils has proposed, then fourteen to fifteen 
divisions of the armies of Warsaw, .Vllna, St. Petersburg 
and Kiev, of which eight are only between 50 and 60 odd 
rniles distant from our borders, would be combined on our 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 45 

eastern frontier, against the provinces of East and West 
Prussia. 

Not only is Russia preparing herself for a war of offence 
by increasing her army and its readiness for war, but she is 
also devoting great attention to strengthening her fortifica- 
tions. The representative of the Minister of War was able 
to state last June that, in 19 12, not only were the existing 
forts improved and strengthened, but that new fortresses had 
been constructed. 

The Russians organize their system of national defence 
on the western frontier as follows : A northern seat of war de- 
fended by the fortifications of Kovno and the fortified Niemen 
line; a southern seat of war, opposite Galicia, defended by 
the fortresses at Dubno, Lutzk and Rovno,andan "advanced 
seat of war," the center of which is in the triangular fortifi- 
cations of Warsaw, Novo — Georgievsk and Zegrze,the right 
wing of which is indicated by the fortified line of Narev and 
the left by the fortified towns of Ivangorod and Brest-Li- 
tovsk. Along the whole circumference of this position of de- 
fence the work is proceeding energetically; the center of War- 
saw is being entirely transformed, Brest-Litovsk has been 
strengthened to a fortress of the first magnitude, and the 
Narev-Niemen line, after the fashion of the French barrier 
fortresses on its eastern boundary, has been made into an im- 
pregnable obstacle by the construction of strong bases of sup- 
port. And Russia is not less active in preparing against an 
attack on St. Petersburg from the sea — by the construction 
of fortresses even stronger than those of Kronstadt; while 
she strives to make the mouth of the Gulf of Finland, on its 
northern and southern banks, secure against an attack from a 
fleet, by the new forts, Reval-Dago-Oesel and Sveaborg- 
Porkale. 

Moreover, if one takes into consideration that the sum of 
$145,000 expended in 1907 for the support of the reservists 
and the militia, who were called in for practice, increased in 
19 13 to $5,587,500; that in the frontier regions, huge sup- 



46 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

plies of grain, arms, automobile trucks and other accessories 
of war, are being accumulated; that Russia is making the 
greatest efforts to perfect aviation and to train the greatest 
possible number of officers as aviators, one cannot help think- 
ing that she believes she can yield to the pressure of her ally 
and banker, since the moment is favorable for a combined at- 
tack on Germany and Austria-Hungary. 

Nor has Russia failed to employ a means, hitherto un- 
tried, of weakening Germany's ally as much as possible, by 
sending emissaries into these very frontier regions, who have 
stimulated emigration to such an extent that tens of thou- 
sands of men liable to military service have left Austria and 
have deprived the Austrian army of irrecoverable strength. 

The best standard for judgment of the efforts that a state 
makes for its defence is provided by the figures of the budget 
— by the annual appropriation. And Russia has increased her 
appropriation for the army alone, in the years from 1909 to 
19 14 by $187,500,000, that is, by 72 per cent.; and as com- 
pared with the amount in 19 13, the appropriation has in- 
creased in 19 14 by $136,500,000, or 43.5 per cent. The 
same conditions prevail with regard to the fleet: Of the new 
vessels for the Baltic fleet, four battleships are ready, and 
four of 23,370 tons are under construction; six armored cruis- 
ers are ready, and four of 32,500 tons are under construc- 
tion ; four protected cruisers are ready, and six are under con- 
struction; 58 torpedo boats are ready, and 36 are under 
construction; and 13 submarines are ready or under construc- 
tion. These tremendous exertions to create rapidly a new 
fleet on the Baltic necessitated an increase in the state ap- 
propriation of $78,000,000 from 1909 to 19 13, that is, 
154 per cent. At the same time the appropriations for the 
navy Increased 50 per cent, in France, 29.6 per cent, in Eng- 
land, and only 13.8 per cent, in Germany. Judge by this how 
unfounded are England's reproaches to Germany, and to 
Germany alone, that she was strengthening her naval power 
inordinately. Why does she not reproach her allies, France 
and Russia? 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 47 



III. FRANCE 

It is noteworthy that Homer Lea does not mention France 
at all in his book, "The Day of the Saxon." This should be 
mortifying to her, since it ignores her in the rivalry with Eng- 
land. She lost her importance on sea for the Anglo-Saxons 
when England succeeded in defeating her fleet in the i8th 
century and in tearing from her her great and prosperous 
colonial possessions. That France has meanwhile been able 
to win new and extensive possessions in other portions of the 
world does not seem to affect Great Britain, since she has 
been able to preserve for herself a certain supremacy. Under 
pressure from England, at the moment in which she believed 
herself already to have made the connection with her eastern 
territory, France was obliged to relinquish her rights in 
Egypt and with them the idea of gaining a colony straight 
across Africa from Senegambia to the Red Sea (Abyssinia). 
This was the only case in which her plans for expansion 
crossed those of the British Empire, and the latter did not 
hesitate to interfere immediately with brute force. 

Although the English treatment of France in 1898 was 
regarded by the latter as deeply humiliating, this feeling 
rapidly vanished and, when England came to the aid of her 
former opponent in the Moroccan question, gave way to the 
policy of revenge against Germany, which had been cherished 
since 1870. What is the basis of France's hatred of Ger- 
many, which causes her constantly to plan revenge and when- 
ever there is any chance of satisfying it, to relegate all other 
questions to the background? The French attempt to trace 
its course to the ancient struggle between the Gauls and the 
Germans for the possession of the blessed banks of the Rhine. 
They have set up a peculiar conception of historical events in 
order to justify Louis XIV's seizure of Alsace and Lorraine 
from Germany, and have persisted in it with such consistency 



48 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

in the education of their youth, that not only the French, but 
also the inhabitants of those provinces under French influence, 
are thoroughly imbued with this idea. After the division of 
the empire by Charlemagne — whom they consider a French 
monarch — these provinces were the playthings of princes and 
nations so that they had no peace and no prosperity until King 
Louis XIV took pity on them and incorporated them into 
his kingdom, where they could enjoy the blessings of peace 
and culture. Even if this theory were correct — and it con- 
tradicts the facts of history on every point — it cannot be 
denied that the population of Alsace-Lorraine comes of pure 
Teutonic, and not Gallic, stock, and is still unchanged. Be- 
sides, the Alsatians and Lotharingians were never recognized 
as equals by the French; on the contrary they were always 
subordinated, mocked and scorned, as coming from alien 
stock. 

But the defeats of 1870-71, which terminated in the re- 
union of Alsace-Lorraine with Germany, wounded the deep- 
est feehng of the French nation — her vanity — and that is the 
root of her ineffaceable hatred. France could forget that 
England destroyed her naval power, that she lost her 
colonies, so long as she preserved her supremacy on land. 
Created by Louis XIV, it was increased on the continent to 
the utmost bounds of possibility by Napoleon; and since that 
time the "grande nation" has considered herself the bearer 
of culture, the ruling power in Europe. When relying on 
this power under Napoleon III, French arrogance met with 
the unexpected opposition of Germany, when the latter coun- 
try, which had been despised, because of its system of small 
states and dissension, which had been scornfully charged with 
barbarity and lack of culture, rose in close union and won su- 
premacy, not only on the field of battle, but also in industry 
and commerce, in art and science with unexpected power and 
ability, then the French nation, forced from its throne and 
wounded to the utmost in its vanity, became cognizant of its 
weaknesses. Hinc tUae lacrimae! 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 49 

Because of the military prowess of its inhabitants, who, 
as becomes descendants of ancient Teutonic races, have pre- 
served warHke incHnations and virtues and have provided the 
French army with many of its best soldiers and most famous 
generals, France's fanatical desire to win back Alsace-Lor- 
raine has a certain significance. Considering the decrease of 
the population in France, the two million inhabitants of Al- 
sace-Lorraine are a valuable addition, and, if admission to 
the French army were open to the Alsatians and Lotharin- 
gians, the lack of officers would to a certain extent be sup- 
plied. 

Notwithstanding an occasional diminution of their hostile 
attitude — for this does not prevail over the whole of France, 
nor in an equal degree in the entire population — the French 
government, whatever its sentiments, has always striven to 
perfect and complete the army and the fortifications. Two 
objects governed it; a strong protection of the frontier, ex- 
posed since the loss of the Rhine boundary, and a strength in 
its own troops equal, as far as possible, to that of the German 
army. 

On the 157 miles of German frontier along the Meuse 
and Moselle Rivers, a chain of four strong fortresses was 
created, which serve to protect two Hnes of barrier fortresses 
— Verdun-Toul and Epinal-Belfort. These serve as bases of 
support for the wings and flank the gaps — Verdun-Longwy 
(32 miles) and Toul-Epinal (44 miles). They were pri- 
marily intended to protect the advance of the army against 
the more rapidly mobilized German forces, especially as the 
position, Verdun-Toul, by reason of its situation on the edge 
of the Cote de Meuse, which slopes precipitously down to 
the plain below, is extraordinarily favorable for an army of 
defence and would have to be cut through by us. When 
Italy joined the German alliance with Austria-Hungary, a 
more adequate protection of the frontier of the Alps towards 
Italy had to be considered ; and thus an extraordinarily strong 
system of fortifications, consisting of a blockade of the passes. 



so GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

and strong bases of support further back, which not only 
intercepts and defends all the roads leading over the moun- 
tains, but many byways as well, was established here, too. 
Finally, the French had to provide against the possibility that 
German troops, disregarding neutrality treaties, would force 
their way into Belgium or march through Switzerland, so 
that the efficiency of the old fortifications on these frontiers, 
too, had to be examined and improved, as needed. Thus 
France has received a coat of mail, as it were, of fortifica- 
tions stretching along the whole eastern frontier, a distance 
of about 625 miles, which would call a halt to the unexpected 
invasion of a hostile army. It is impossible to ignore these 
fortresses as in 1870 or to regard them lightly. 

The construction of these fortresses and the constantly 
required improvements and modernization of old defenses 
could be easily accomplished by the possession of the neces- 
sary funds, which were always easily obtainable. Much more 
difficult was the maintenance of the army on the same level 
with that of the German Empire, for here the sacrifice of 
money, however much, was of no avail. Only large masses 
of men counted, and France did not have the same supply of 
men as of money. Even in the seventies the population of 
France was declining — a condition directly opposite to that 
in Germany. With about the same amount of territory, 
France had, in 1875 for example, only 36,900,000 inhabi- 
tants, while Germany had 42,700,000. Since that time the 
population of France has increased only to 39,700,000, or 
7.6 per cent., while in Germany it has risen to 67,500,000, 
that is 58 per cent. The result was that France could not 
keep pace with Germany as regards the annual number of 
her recruits, even if she reduced her physical standard. She 
accordingly had to reduce the normal strength of the army 
units, primarily that of the companies, in order to retain the 
same number of larger commands, and finally was compelled 
to include as soldiers those who did not possess the physical 
requirements, by withdrawing the numerous officers' order- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 51 

lies and men employed in similar capacities, and replacing 
them by others still less fit. 

The result of the smaller number of recmlts was a smaller 
supply of drilled troops and of reserves for mobilization 
than in the case of the German army. If compulsory service 
had been as strict in Germany as in France, there would soon 
have been a far greater number of drilled soldiers for the 
German army than for the French. But the increase in the 
number liable to service, and, consequently, of recruits, in 
Germany, did not keep pace with the increase of the 
population, so that the balance between France and Ger- 
many was not appreciably disturbed. This would en- 
able France, at least for the time being, to preserve 
a superiority, if she succeeded in augmenting her force 
in the standing army over that at the disposal of her 
eastern neighbor. In case of war the number of those 
liable to service, which depends on the number of recruits, 
could naturally not be increased by this means, and therefore, 
the superior number of possible soldiers at the disposal of 
Germany is indisputable. The prolonging of the term of ser- 
vice from two to three years, however, afforded a greater in- 
crease of the standing army, amounting to 200,000 men, and 
had the additional advantage of providing a much more 
thorough training, not only for the troops in general, but also 
for the candidates for the position of reserve officers than was 
possible in Germany. 

After the introduction of the three-year term of active 
service, the French standing army attained a strength of 768, 
300 men, composed of petty officers and privates (including 
the 80,000 troops of reserves, the police force of 24,000 
men and the 31,300 colonial troops), while our army num- 
bered only 619,000. And even with our great augmenta- 
tion, through which we again approached general conscrip- 
tion, we have not quite caught up with the French, as we 
have only about 751,000 men under the colors. 

The three-year term of service was accomplished in a 



52 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

strange manner, not without significance for the coming years. 
As the men born in 1890, serving their second year, objected 
to remaining another year, and gave vent to their feelings by 
gross excesses and mutiny, it was decided to dismiss them in 
the fall of 19 13 and to replace them simultaneously by two 
other series of recruits, namely, those born in 1892 and 1 893. 
Consequently, two series of recruits have to be trained at the 
same time, one of which has already served one year of its 
term, a circumstance which would make it almost impossible 
for the French army to enter into war at present. However, 
since, in order legally to justify the premature call to service 
of the series of 1893, the beginning of the term of service 
was shifted back a year, from twenty-one to twenty; in the 
fall of 19 14, the series of 1894 will be obliged to serve. But, 
as the series of 1891 which is serving its second year is com- 
pelled to remain for three years, It can still be under arms 
during the year of 19 15. The consequence will be that there 
will be, not only three, but four series next year in the stand- 
ing army, that is, a greater strength than is necessary for the 
war basis. A mobilization, according to this, could be ac- 
complished next year with all the more ease and rapidity, as 
not only have all the units of military force their full war 
strength already, but they could even furnish a consider- 
able portion of their troops as a nucleus for the required 
reserves. 

France will have another opportunity for a similar pro- 
ceeding in 19 1 6, since only in the fall of that year will the two 
series of 19 13 receive their dismissal. If, by that time, she 
has not attained the purpose for which she keeps this exceed- 
ingly strong armament, if she has not been able to persuade 
Russia and England to attack Germany, then she will prob- 
ably have to renounce the Idea of a war of revenge, if she 
does not wish to face economic ruin. The state of affairs 
that France has created by the exceptional three years' term 
of service is nothing less than a continual preparation for war. 
It may be possible for a rich country to make the pecuniary 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 53 

sacrifices hereby occasioned. The personal sacrifices, how- 
ever, would be too great, if one considers that, not only is the 
peasant torn for so long a time from his plough, the crafts- 
man from his trade, but also that all the young men whose 
scientific and artistic training is of vital importance to the 
state, are obliged to interrupt their studies for three years 
and thus undoubtedly will have to begin all over again. This 
youthful vigor, uselessly sacrificed to the "revenge" feeling 
would take bitter retaliation should it not be utilized for this 
purpose. 

For all these reasons the consequence of France's military 
measures is that she must press on to the beginning of the 
war against Germany in 19 15 or 19 16 under any circum- 
stances. 

But it is not enough for her to have more than two per 
cent, of the whole population (including the ofl^cers) in the 
standing army. In addition, France is seeking to draw rein- 
forcements from her colonies, in order 'to attain numerical 
superiority without the assistance of other states. In 1870, 
the most "civilized" nation of the world opposed us with all 
sorts of brutally savage African tribes. In this direction she 
can do still more. From Algeria, Senegambia and the West- 
ern Sudan especially, considerable support can be derived 
from a population which is estimated at 30,000,000, and the 
government has an eye to this purpose. A German traveler, 
who is well acquainted with conditions in the Sudan, confirms 
this with these words: "Ideas neither of commercial advan- 
tage nor of colonization are sufficiently encouraged. On the 
contrary, France's policy is to provide for the subsistence of 
the colony by means of the strength, intelligence ^nd money 
of the colored races, and to produce French citizens of the 
black race, by the thousands, hundreds of thousands and mil- 
lions, and naturally all these millions are to become good, 
enthusiastic and patriotic French soldiers." 

There are already 28 battalions of so-called Senegal 
sharpshooters, and every year this organized plan progresses. 



54 . GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

Naturally, these black troops cannot simply be transplanted 
to the European climate; yet the attempt to utilize them on 
the north coast of Africa has apparently had good results, so 
that there can be no hesitation in transporting the troops of 
European or Arabian blood, that are stationed in Africa, 
across to the seat of war, and in replacing them by Senegal 
sharpshooters. Perhaps it will be possible to bring over the 
blacks that have become acclimated to the north coast of Af- 
rica. At all events, there will be a considerable force at hand 
in the Sudan itself which can proceed along the roads of this 
region, and from Equatorial Africa against our African colo- 
nies and secure these valuable possessions. Already twenty 
thousand men are in readiness for such a task. It is evident 
from the continual increase of the Algerian regiments of 
sharpshooters, with what zeal preparations for war are pro- 
ceeding In Algiers, for they are to be Increased to the num- 
ber of 48, by the yearly creation of five new battalions. They 
have already reached the number of 39. 

But France has sought reinforcements In regions other 
than her African colonies, In order to outstrip Germany's mili- 
tary strength, despite her lack of men. Natives of the Antilles 
were brought over, who, as a matter of fact, succumbed to 
the cHmate. Consequently, they were transferred to Algeria, 
but even there they proved unequal to the climate. After 
such attempts. It should not surprise us if the German troops 
should encounter natives of Madagascar, Annam and Cam- 
bodia In the next war. 

In the year 19 12 the number of available trained troops 
In France was estimated at from four and a half to four and 
three-quarter millions, which would be from 1 1.3 per cent, to 
12 per cent, of the whole population. As one can hardly count 
on more than from 17 to 18 per cent, of men liable to ser- 
vice, after the moblhzatlon of such a number, only children, 
old men and weaklings would remain In the country, to fulfill 
the duties of citizenship. That would mean that all civil 
callings would be brought to a standstill In order to carry on 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 55 

the war with such a large army. But as this is absolutely 
Impossible, even In the interest of the army, it will be well 
not to count on such an enormous number. Russia with her 
160,000,000 Inhabitants can exact such a sacrifice of men, 
but not France. 

However, the French army — or rather armies — will ne- 
cessitate such great areas for operation, If the number of the 
army corps is doubled by the reserves, even without the divi- 
sions of the territorial army and its reserves, that the Ger- 
man-French frontier Is much too short to admit of a simul- 
taneous passage. Consequently, only one division of the 
forces could be utilized at a time, or else the means of egress 
would have to be increased and widened. This is where Bel- 
gium will play a part, for her sympathy with France is so 
well known that opposition, such as is the duty of a neutral 
state towards an encroachment on its territory, can hardly be 
expected from this quarter. It is true that Belgium would be 
playing a dangerous game, if she yielded to France, for, 
whatever the outcome, her independence would be a thing 
of the past. But England, too, as we saw, seems to count 
upon disembarking her land forces in Antwerp; and on neu- 
tral ground she would have to join forces with her ally France 
— of course, with the agreement to protect Belgium against 
"plunder-loving Germany," even if German troops had not 
yet set foot on neutral ground. 

Homer Lea gives us ideas on neutrality that are charac- 
teristic of the Anglo-Saxons. He thinks that the occupation 
of a neutral country — for example, Holland or Belgium — 
before a war with Germany might call forth violent opposi- 
tion from England. 

"This is false," he remarks, "for the British Empire is 
not moved by the sanctity of neutrality. It is only a means 
of evading responsibility and shifting it upon those nations 
which delude themselves with the belief that declarations of 
neutrality are inviolable; whereas, no nation has violated neu- 
tral territory and denied the obligation of observing neutral- 



S6 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

ity more frequently than the British. The occupation by the 
Anglo-Saxons of these frontiers \YOuld be regarded as a ter- 
ritorial, and not a moral, violation of the neutrality of the 
states concerned. Neutrality of states under the conditions 
just mentioned has nev^er had heretofore, nor will ever have 
in future, any place among the nations in time of war. Such 
a neutrality is a modern illusion. It means downright aber- 
ration." (pp. 265-266.) 

I do not believe that the opposition of England to such a 
violation of neutrality would be aroused as Homer Lea seems 
to expect, rather do I think that his is the generally accepted 
theory of the country. 

France has experienced various disappointments in the 
course of the last ten years, during which she has devoted 
herself exclusively to preparations for the war with Germany. 
We surpassed her in the construction of cannon; her much 
praised invention of smokeless powder was a fiasco. When 
the "Lebaudy" was proudly extolled as the only airship in 
the world, no fewer than three dirigibles appeared in Ger- 
many at the same time and proved themselves capable of 
greater speed than the French airships. When the French 
enthusiastically applied themselves to the construction and 
utilization of these flying machines, their triumph was brief, 
as the German apparatuses and airmen were able to accom- 
plish equally as much in the course of a few years. The rea- 
son for all this lies in the native characteristics of the French; 
they are intelligent, inventive, courageous and seize every 
new idea with great dexterity and zeal. They are not care- 
ful workers, however, and lack the infinite patience of the 
German, who, unlike the Frenchman, is not satisfied with 
temporary success and then turns to new fields, but is never 
content with what he has achieved, and is constantly seeking 
to improve and to perfect it. 

The French are able to utilize still another weapon with 
skill and good fortune : the undermining of our boundary 
lands, the provinces of Alsace and Lorraine. I must refer 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 57 

to this, because it will play a portentous part in the coming 
struggle, at least in the first stages, but will not be a blessing 
for the population if it cannot successfully resist. 



lY. CONCLUSION 

Since the downfall of the Roman Empire the Teutonic 
and Latin races of Europe have considered themselves right- 
ly as the standard-bearers of civilization, and hence have re- 
garded themselves as chosen to impress it upon the other por- 
tions of the earth and to exercise in most cases political, as 
well as intellectual, power. However, it has always been 
true in the history of the development of nations, that the 
conquered nation in time having acquired all the customs and 
habits of the conquerors, endeavors, finally, to break its 
fetters, be they of an intellectual or of a political nature. 
And so for the Great European Powers there is the unmis- 
takable danger that in time they may be forced from their 
commanding position. This could not be long delayed, 
should they be obliged single handed to stem the tide of the 
newly made world powers. We have the beginning of this 
new era in Russia's struggle with Japan; for even if Russia 
cannot be regarded as a conspicuous member of the European 
Powers, so far as its civilization is concerned, still, as com- 
pared with Japan, she represents the European t}'pe of it. 
And there, where she suffered defeat in the region of the Pa- 
cific Ocean, the future struggles for world supremacy between 
the European, Asiatic and American nations will be decided. 
Years ago Emperor William II uttered the prophetic warn- 
ing: "Ye peoples of Europe, guard your most sacred pos- 
sessions." What he meant was ver^' evident. No one can 
help realizing that there would be reason enough in a Euro- 
pean combination for the purpose of warding off such dan- 
ger. What would it require, but a few unimportant conces- 
sions, a quiet consideration of the vital needs of each indus- 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

try, increased territorial power, and the suppression of all 
feeling of revenge or jealousy among neighboring states? 
Are the interests of each really so directly opposed, that a 
little could not be sacrificed to guard against a greater catas- 
trophe? If the Powers at the Hague Peace Conference had 
in mind that they would unite for common defence and cher- 
ished the hope of attaining such a union, then it would be of 
invaluable significance to Europe, But how different are the 
actual conditions. Divided into two great camps, the six 
Great Powers stand confronting one another, groaning under 
the burden of their heavy armament. They tallc of peace 
and friendship, and all the time one of them is ready to strike, 
while the other, with sword unsheathed, must be prepared at 
a moment's notice to join in the struggle, in which Europe will 
tear itself to pieces and render itself for an indefinite period, 
unable to meet those dangers threatening it from without, in 
every sphere, economic, political and military. 

Ever since King Edward of England, laboring under the 
delusion that the German Empire's growing land and naval 
power was becoming dangerous to Britain's position of world 
supremacy, formed an alliance against us with all England's 
former opponents and spared no pains to isolate us as much 
as possible and to surround us with hostile arms, Europe has 
been living in a state of constant preparation for a fearful, 
decisive struggle. That this contest has not long since been 
waged, that even so favorable an opportunity as the war torch 
in the Balkans did not set the spark to the powder, that it 
was in fact England, who always restrained her eager allies — 
that, in my opinion, is due chiefly to England's calculating 
business sense. England would not be much concerned, 
should the continental powers come to blows and inflict seri- 
ous wounds on one another; but they then would be obliged 
to share the costs. Whoever the victor in this struggle, what 
benefit would accrue to him? Devastated lands and empty 
coffers. What defeated country could pay the war indem- 
nity? What the benefits of such a war would be it is difllicult 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 59 

to conjecture. Inasmuch as Great Britain may \)t forced to 
take active part therein, since it Is she who has the greatest 
interest in the destruction of the German fleet, Inasmuch as 
she cannot hope to leave the field of battle without material 
losses, nor secure any great advantage from the struggle, she 
recoils from the moment in which she must take the decisive 
step. 

However, the spirits that you summoned to aid, you can- 
not lightly cast aside — the spirit of revenge which was kin- 
dled in France, the burning hatred of Russia for Austria-Hun- 
gary, has Impelled both countries to an increase of their mili- 
tary preparations, which can only be maintained for a short 
time. As a matter of fact, this preparation does not differ 
from a readiness for war, and In the spring of 19 15, it will 
be so completely perfected that one must be prepared at any 
moment for the appearance of such mighty armies as Europe 
has never yet seen. And that will he the hour of destiny for 
Germany and her allies; then we shall have to strike harder 
blows than ever before, but then, too, the enthusiasm, the 
devotion, the courage of sacrifice will be commensurate. For 
we will be fighting for the right. Never will a people have 
been attacked with greater injustice than we In this coming 
war; never will a nation have borne with so much patience 
and meekness such agonizing jealousies and affronts; never 
has a nation possessed a greater ruler and firmer rock of peace 
than Emperor William. 

Just as the government responded to the threatening 
measures of France In the re-establishment last year of the 
three-year term of service with a mighty Increase of our mil- 
itary force, just as the German people accepted, without mur- 
mur, nay even with a sentiment of pride and devotion to the 
Fatherland, the pecuniary sacrifices Involved, so — and of this 
we can be certain — every weapon will be ready promptly, and 
not only the military force, but the financial and industrial 
bases as well will be sound. For a war of such dimensions 
which demands the whole national strength of each country 



6o GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

will not be fought with the weapons of warfare alone, but 
will require the whole economic and financial strength in- 
volved to cope with such forces. 

It must not be imagined that five or six million soldiers 
can suddenly overrun our territory from all sides and crush 
our army. At the beginning, only the active army, exclusive 
of the troops retained for garrisoning the fortresses and other 
purposes, will have to be reckoned with, for the mobilizing 
of the reserve forces demands some time. Secondly, large 
masses of troops always necessitate enormous moving space, 
so that in a given area only an army of approximately small 
strength can be utilized. In these respects our modern army 
of millions differs greatly from the smaller armies which were 
at the disposal of Frederick the Great and even of Napoleon. 
Those masters of strategy could always follow the course of 
battle from a point of vantage and intervene accordingly. In 
the battles of Metz and Sedan this was quite impossible, 
since the still comparatively small masses of the army had to 
spread over many miles in order to take part in the battle. 
Conceive of the dimensions of the battles in Manchuria ! The 
mere weight of numbers will accomplish nothing in the com- 
ing war; it will not be necessary for one man to fight five or 
six; the opposing forces will be nearly equal. Therefore, in 
the future, as in the past, the moral qualities, coupled with 
the physical strength, training and marksmanship of each 
individual soldier, and the judgment of the commanders as 
to the distribution and proper placing of troops, will deter- 
mine the outcome. 

For the French army, the immoderate — in proportion to 
the strength of the country — increase of the number of troops 
will be of little benefit, inasmuch as this striving for increased 
enlistment has brought forward, not only those fit for war, 
but also many weaklings, who might easily become a burden. 
If one observes how little able the French soldiers are to re- 
sist the diseases that threaten them, one will see that at the 
present moment not less than 36 per cent, of those in active 



GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 6i 

service have been obliged to withdraw from It, because of 
sickness, weakness or death. One must not forget that men 
of this mold will succumb In many cases to the hardships of 
long marches. Insufficient food, and constant nervous strain. 
It cannot be denied that in the French army, as In the Rus- 
sian, the longer term of service can promote the attainment of 
a higher degree of efficiency, under appropriate guidance, 
than Is possible in the case of the two-year term of service. 
However, most of all, this necessitates conscientious and self- 
sacrificing teachers, that Is, a corps of officers and drill ser- 
geants of superior quality. These might be hard to find in 
the Russian army, to judge from the outcome of the war with 
Japan, and. In France, the quality of the officers as well as 
that of the soldiers, is considerably affected by their constant 
participation in politics. Then, too, our army benefits by a 
certain characteristic of the German soldier, which Is gener- 
ally lacking In men of the Latin countries. The reservist and 
even the militiaman retains that which he learned In active 
service with extraordinary tenacity. One must have seen a 
company of the militia in the field In order correctly to esti- 
mate the value of this quality. I myself have noticed that In 
the work of the engineers, whose technical efficiency is most 
easily forgotten, they need but one or two days of practice. 
In order fully to regain their former proficiency, and require 
but a few directions In order to act with the same dexterity 
as if they had been dismissed yesterday, and not ten years 
ago. 

When it comes to the struggle, we shall meet our foes 
with the same steadiness and determination for vlctoiy as in 
1870, and we shall remember that numbers alone do not 
bring victory, but that It will fall to him who possesses the 
greatest endurance and the last dollar. Moreover, the motto, 
"Si vis paceni, para justitiam" ("If you wish for peace, pre- 
pare for justice"), which the architect of the Peace Palace 
placed over the window of the great hall of sessions, para- 
phrasing an old saying, would be all very well, if there could 



62 GERMANY'S HOUR OF DESTINY 

be absolute justice. Who can decide whether Germany or 
France Is entitled to the possession of Alsace-Lorraine? 
Each will always consider his own the sole just claim. Then 
It Is better that we restore the saying to Its old time form: 
''Si vis pacem, para belhim" ("If you wish peace, prepare 
for war"). 



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